Position & Market Dynamics
Binary Options
24.0%
1% (Unlikely Exit)
50% (Coin Toss)
99% (Imminent Exit)
YES Shares
Avg Price:
$0.240
NO Shares
Avg Price:
$0.760
$50,000
2.0%
Position Capital & Risk
Total Invested
$240.00
Max Risk / Loss
$240.00
Portfolio EV
+$0.00
+0.0%
Weighted by market prob
Net Profit if YES (100%)
$760.00
+316.7% ROI
Infantino exits
Net Profit if NO (0%)
-$240.00
-100.0% ROI
Infantino stays
Breakeven Market Odds
24.0%
0.0% Edge
Implied odds required
Market Payoff & Order Book Visualizer
Optimal Delta Hedge:
Buy 315 NO contracts @ $0.760 to neutralize downside risk
POSITION PROOF & AUDIT SUMMARY
SYNCHRONIZED
Last updated: Just now
Scenario Outcome Spectrum
At 24.0% market probability, holding 1000 YES yields +$198.40 expected EV.
Max Slippage Impact
Simulated order size produces 0.20% estimated price slippage in a $50,000 depth pool.
Hedge Neutrality Ratio
Target Delta hedge requires 1.00 YES / 3.17 NO ratio for zero-variance resolution.