Threshold Odds (P(Gas > Threshold))
Mechanics: Drag sliders or SVG handles to modify market probabilities. Curves use monotonic cubic PCHIP interpolation to enforce density consistency.
Implied Price Probability Density (PDF / CDF)
Implied Mean
$3.48
Expected retail avg
Implied Median
$3.46
50th percentile
80% Confidence
$3.18 - $3.82
P10 to P90 range
Tail Risk (>$4.00)
8.0%
Severe spike probability