Maritime Choke Point Flow Simulation
Strait of Hormuz vs. Cape Reroute
SCENARIO PRESETS
Closure / Disruption Risk
40%
Normal Transit Volume
21 Mbd
Rerouting Surcharge / bbl
$7.50
Disruption Duration
30 Days
THROUGHPUT CHOKE RATE
12.6 Mbd
Direct Hormuz passage
REROUTED VIA CAPE
8.4 Mbd
+14-18 Days Sea Transit
DAILY DEFICIT IMPACT
3.36 Mbd
Unmitigated global deficit
WAR RISK FREIGHT SURCHARGE
$3.00 / bbl
Implied shipping premium
Prediction Market Odds & Price Distribution
Implied Polymarket Strike Matrix
IMPLIED STRIKE PROBABILITIES
Brent > $80
94%
Brent > $85
78%
Brent > $90
52%
Brent > $100
22%
PRICE PROBABILITY DENSITY CURVE
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