EPIDEMIOLOGY DESK

Measles Outbreak Trajectory & Fatality Simulator

Public Health Epidemiological Notice: Pennsylvania reports measles-related fatalities amid growing community transmission. Measles is one of the most infectious respiratory pathogens known (R0 12–18). When vaccination coverage falls below the ~93–95% herd immunity threshold, exponential propagation occurs in unimmunized pockets.
Herd Immunity Threshold
93.3%
Required for barrier (1 - 1/R₀)
Peak Weekly Cases
12,450
Week 11 crest
Total Projected Cases
48,200
48.2% attack of vulnerable pool
Projected Fatalities
72
1.5 per 1,000 cases (CFR)
Epidemic Parameters SEIR MODEL
Scenario Presets
15.0
Measles transmission index (range 12.0 to 18.0 secondary infections).
88.0%
Target threshold for sustained population defense is ≥ 93–95%.
100,000
Local county/district cohort size exposed to viral seed.
1.5 ‰
CDC historical US range: 1.0 to 2.0 deaths per 1,000 recorded cases.
Coverage vs. Herd Immunity Barrier Deficit: -5.3%
0% Critical Barrier: 93.3% 100%
Weekly Epidemic Trajectory & Transmission Waves (26-Week Projection) EPIDEMIC CURVE (SEIR)
Intervention Strategy Multi-Scenario Comparison COMPARATIVE OUTCOMES
Scenario Vaccine Coverage R₀ Transmission Peak Week Total Projected Cases Fatalities Status
Epidemiological State Diagnostic Outbreak peaking at week 11 with severe unvaccinated cluster vulnerability
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