MMR Vaccine Schedule & Immunological Vulnerability Simulator

Epidemiological model of visit attrition, unprotected child-months, and herd immunity thresholds (Nature analysis)

Split 3-Antigen Active
Unprotected Child-Months
42,800
Cumulative cohort vulnerability window
Full Series Completion Rate
59.2%
Children receiving all target doses
Delay to Full Titer Protection
182 Days
Lag vs standard combined 2-dose series
Measles Outbreak Multiplier
3.84x
Epidemiological transmission risk (R₀=15)
Clinical Presets
Model Parameters
Per-Visit Retention Rate 84% (16% drop-off)
Single-Antigen Spacing Interval 2 Months
Measles Pathogen Basic R₀ 15.0
Modeled Birth Cohort Size 10,000
Clinical Note: Splitting 2 combination visits into 6 separate visits compounds appointment dropout exponentially (rvisits).
Antigen Immunization Timelines & Susceptibility Windows (Age 0 - 36 Months)
Protected Susceptible Window
Herd Immunity Coverage & Outbreak Risk Thresholds
Target Population Threshold: 93.3% - 95.0% (Required for R₀ = 15.0)
0% Protected Critical Threshold: 93.3% 100% Protected
Epidemiological Verdict: Current completion of 59.2% falls 34.1% below the 93.3% measles elimination threshold, creating sustained community outbreak vulnerability.
Cohort Retention & Series Completion Breakdown
Encounter / Dose Antigen Timing Retention Protected Cohort
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