SUPPLY RESTRICTION MODEL
LIVE SHOCK
QUICK CALIBRATION PRESETS
2,500 kb/d
0 (Normal Flow)
3,000 kb/d
6,000 kb/d (Severe)
$
$
Projected Crude Price
$94.20
+20.0%
vs baseline
Projected US Retail Gas
$4.18
+$0.73/gal
at pump
✓ Disruption report exported & state archived.
GLOBAL CRUDE PRICE ELASTICITY & SHIFT CURVE
Unperturbed Curve
Shock Equilibrium
Operating Point
| Transmission Component | Base Rate | Shocked Value | Transmission Formula / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Daily Supply Deficit | 0 kb/d | 2,500 kb/d | Choke on global market (~102 mb/d) |
| Benchmark Crude (Brent) | $78.50 /bbl | $94.20 /bbl | Short-run price elasticity β = -0.125 |
| Refinery Pass-Through Rate | $2.40 /bbl-gal | 42 gal/bbl yield | Crude pass-through ~$0.024/gal per $1/bbl oil |
| US Retail Regular Gasoline | $3.45 /gal | $4.18 /gal | Projected national pump average |