1. Event Cascade Pipeline
Conditional Node Editor
Model individual stage success rates. Joint probability $P(\text{All})$ cascades sequentially.
Calculated Joint Probability
52.0%
2. Market Pricing & Execution
Polymarket Contract Specs
3. EV & Arbitrage Signal
ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY: BUY YES
EV (YES Position)
+$0.083
EV (NO Position)
-$0.040
Optimal Stake (Kelly)
$83.33
Recommended Action
BUY YES
4. EV Sensitivity Matrix
Market Price vs True Prob
Expected Value ($) relative to varying YES contract price (X-axis) and True Prob (Y-axis).
■ Positive EV
■ Negative EV