Polymarket Arbitrage

PKK Disarmament Market Arbitrage Calculator

1. Event Cascade Pipeline Conditional Node Editor

Model individual stage success rates. Joint probability $P(\text{All})$ cascades sequentially.

Calculated Joint Probability
52.0%
2. Market Pricing & Execution Polymarket Contract Specs
3. EV & Arbitrage Signal
ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY: BUY YES
EV (YES Position) +$0.083
EV (NO Position) -$0.040
Optimal Stake (Kelly) $83.33
Recommended Action BUY YES
4. EV Sensitivity Matrix Market Price vs True Prob

Expected Value ($) relative to varying YES contract price (X-axis) and True Prob (Y-axis).

■ Positive EV ■ Negative EV
5. Scenario Trade Plan Export & Execution Report
Grounded in Polymarket Turkish Parliament PKK Disarmament Event Data • Pinned Local Pure JS Engine
Super generates helpful tools and automates fact-checking across the internet proactively. If you enjoyed this tool, build your own with Super and share it with a friend.