Audit & Dispute Inputs
LIVE FIXTURE ACTIVE
Anomaly Significance (σ)
2.40
Statistical deviation of reported overnight audit anomalies.
Dispute Longevity (Hours)
24h
Investigative duration prior to official deadline/certification.
Court Injunction Likelihood
25%
Probability that state court orders audit stay or injunction.
Hist. Concession Rate (Prior)
5%
Prior historical likelihood of candidate concession during dispute.
Market YES Price (Polymarket)
$0.18
Current market price for "Will Candidate Concede by Target Date?"
Position & Order Simulator
Buy YES (Dispute Concedes)
Buy NO (Dispute Persists)
Bayesian Concession Prob
12.4%
-5.6% vs Market Price
Implied Moneyline / Dec
+706 / 8.06
Polymarket: +456 / 5.56
Arb / Edge Margin
+5.60%
BUY NO EDGE DETECTED
Net Position Expected Value
+$42.50
Hedge Portfolio Risk Adjusted
Probability Trajectory vs Dispute Longevity
Bayesian Decay Curve (Hours 0 - 168)
Binary Position Payoff Matrix
CALCULATED VIA MATH.JS
| Resolution Outcome | Probability | YES Position Payout | NO Position Payout | Net Portfolio Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concession / Resolved (YES) | 12.4% | +$820.00 | -$410.00 | +$410.00 |
| Non-Concession / Disputed (NO) | 87.6% | -$180.00 | +$90.00 | -$90.00 |