PM·Lab

Simplified market · Not financial advice

Polymarket Probability Trader · Simulated Market Lab

Odds of Tobey Maguire returning as Spider-Man in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’

Starting odds: 90.0% per @PopBase and Polymarket traders. This lab uses a simplified pool model, not live market data.

STARTING ODDS 90.0% · TOBEY MAGUIRE RETURN MARKET · BUY YES OR NO TO SEE PROBABILITY MOVE
90.0%

Probability = YES shares ÷ (YES shares + NO shares)

Balance$1,000.00
YES shares0
NO shares0
Pool: YES900
Pool: NO100
Total pool1000
YES versus NO probability split A horizontal bar split into red YES and blue NO segments representing the modeled market probability.
90.0% YES 10.0% NO
Pool split: 900 YES / 100 NO

Trading console

Action
Side
Volume

Trade to move the market, or trigger a simulated news shock.

News Shock Simulated headlines

These are what-if shocks to the pool split, not real headlines or financial advice.

No simulated headlines yet. The 90.0% market is live.

Polymarket Probability Trader · Simulated marketWhat changed

No trades yet. Buy or sell YES/NO shares to see how the modeled probability moves.

Trade ledger

Action Side Shares Price Amount Odds move
No trades yet. Buy or sell YES/NO shares to see the ledger fill in.
Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super