Prediction Market Implied Probability & Hedging Simulator POLYSIM v1.0

Contract: RFK Jr. Retention with Administration through Dec 31 (Polymarket Ref)

Baseline YES

$0.68

Simulated Fill

$0.683

Implied Probability

68.3%

Max Slippage

0.44%

SCENARIO PRESETS:

Execution Parameters LIVE RECALC

Order Side YES

Trade Size ($ USD) $1,000

Order Book Depth Pool ($ USD) $250,000

News Sentiment Drift (%) -5.0%

Days to Expiry 143 Days

Total Bankroll ($ USD) $5,000

Market Depth & Trajectory Engine D3 ENGINE READY

Order Book Depth & Execution Point

Implied Probability Trajectory (30-Day Project)

Position Analytics & Kelly Criterion Breakdown

Full Kelly Allocation

12.4%

Recommended Half-Kelly

$310 (6.2%)

Expected Trade EV

+$142.50

Effective Share Price

$0.683

Max Drawdown Risk

-$1,000.00

Side	Trade Size	Base Prob	Adjusted Prob	Slippage	Effective Fill	Payout / Share	Optimal Kelly	Total EV
YES	$1,000	68.0%	63.0%	0.44%	$0.683	$1.00 ($1.46x)	6.2% ($310)	+$142.50