Prediction Market Odds & EV Matrix D3.js Simulation

Derived from 2M BTC trade dataset analysis (50.3% Up coin flip). Explore directional negative EV vs. market-maker spread capture.

Market Parameters

Expected Value (EV) Thermal Surface Matrix Contract Price vs Win Rate
Monte Carlo Settlement Trajectory Distribution 0 Trials Processed

Calculated Outcomes

Directional Bet Expected Value (EV) -$0.017 Negative due to 2% spread
Market Maker EV Capture +$0.020 Bid-Ask Spread Profit
Arbitrage Gap (Overround) -$0.007 No instant risk-free arb
Implied Probability (Up) 51.0% +0.7% vs Empirical
Empirical Trial Log Sample (First 20 Batch Runs)
Verified Calculation Proof: Empirical Up Rate 0.503 | Price $0.510 | Fee 2.0% | Directional EV: -$0.017 | MM EV: +$0.020 | Arb Gap: -$0.007
Trial # Outcome Payout ($) Directional EV ($) Cumulative Edge ($)
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