Polymarket Milestone Proof: David Crowley shifted from 50.0% baseline to 72.0% at poll close, then surged to 99.0% (+2.19 nats log-odds shift) as Wisconsin election returns finalized.
Bayesian Model & Liquidity Sandbox
Votes Reported (% Tally)98.5%
Candidate A Margin Lead (%)+14.2%
Model Sample Confidence ($\sigma$)High (0.85)
Simulate Market Buy Order ($)$25,000
ORDER BOOK LIQUIDITY SLIPPAGESlippage: +1.2% ($0.990 → $0.998)
YES Depth
NO Depth
Log-Odds equation: $\text{Nat Shift} = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{1-P_t}\right) - \ln\left(\frac{P_0}{1-P_0}\right)$. High confidence at >90% reporting rapidly converges probability to outcome boundary.