Macroeconomic Transmission Pipeline
Real-Time Dynamic Propagation
STAGE 1: CPI PRINT
Inflation Surprise
-0.20%
Print at 4.6% vs 4.8% consensus eases MPC urgency
STAGE 2: MONETARY PRICING
FRA Curve Shift
68% Cut Prob
Forward Rate Agreements price 25bp cut probability
STAGE 3: REAL YIELD PARITY
Carry Advantage
+2.80%
SA ex-post real yield provides robust foreign carry shield
STAGE 4: SPOT FX
USD/ZAR Adjustment
18.10
Rand strengthens from 18.25 baseline entry
STAGE 5: SECONDARY FEED
Imported CPI Impact
-0.15%
Stronger currency feeds into lower import fuel/goods costs
SARB vs Fed Yield Term Structure
Nominal & Real Curves
USD/ZAR Trajectory vs CPI Surprise
Sensitivity Profile
Macroeconomic Sensitivity & Monetary Policy Ledger
Audited Equations
| Transmission Channel | Current Value | Benchmark / Base | Delta / Differential | Elasticity / Beta | Policy Implication |
|---|