Rand Macro Transmission & Inflation Impact Lab

Policy & Inflation Transmission Inputs SARB • CPI • FED

SA Headline CPI YoY 4.60%

SARB Repo Rate 8.25%

US Fed Funds Rate 5.25%

Current Spot USD/ZAR 18.25

EMBI SA Risk Spread (bps) 280 bps

Commodity Terms-of-Trade Δ% +1.5%

Transmission Metrics & Real Yield Buffers Sub-Target Disinflation

SA Real Interest Rate +3.65% Repo (8.25%) - CPI (4.60%)

Real Rate Differential +0.65% SA Real vs US Real (3.00%)

Implied Fair USD/ZAR 17.98 UIP + Risk Premium Model

Carry Attractiveness 78.4 Index 0 - 100 Scale

ZAR FX Bias

Appreciation

-1.48% vs Spot

USD/ZAR Valuation Corridor & Real Yield Cushion Curve D3.js Quantitative Corridor

Macroeconomic Transmission Summary Monetary Policy Pass-Through

Easing inflation with repo rate maintained above 8.00% expands South Africa's real yield buffer to +3.65%, sustaining carry inflows and reinforcing ZAR strength against major crosses.

Component	Value	Benchmark / Target	Impact Channel
SARB Policy Stance	8.25% Repo	Target Band: 3.0% - 6.0% (Mid: 4.5%)	Disinflationary Restrictiveness
Domestic Price Pressure	4.60% YoY	SARB Midpoint: 4.50%	Inflation Expectation Anchoring
US Federal Reserve Policy	5.25% FFR	US Real Rate ~3.00%	Cross-Border Capital Inflow Differential
Sovereign Risk Adjustment	280 bps Spread	EM Average ~310 bps	Country Risk Adjusted Parity (UIP)