Refinery Outage & Supply Disruption Impact Model

Analyze critical fuel product deficits, buffer depletion timelines, modal rerouting freight arbitrage, and regional wholesale price shocks when primary refining complexes suffer kinetic strikes or catastrophic unit outages.

Active Scenario:

Refinery & Incident Config MOSCOW METRO

Facility / Node Name

Nameplate Capacity 240,000 bpd

Barrels per stream day (bpsd) crude intake.

Capacity Knocked Offline 65%

Critical atmospheric crude distillation unit (CDU) damage.

Estimated Outage Duration 28 days

Lead time for catalytic tower repair, piping, & metallurgy.

Regional Buffer Inventories 16 days

Commercial tank farm & strategic fuel reserves available.

Metro / Hub Market Share

Share of metropolitan refined product consumption supplied.

Primary Redirection Logistics Defines freight cost delta ($/bbl) and transit friction.

Emergency Countermeasures

Active mitigations dampen immediate rack price surge.

Gross Capacity Offline 156,000 bpd lost throughput

Cumulative Crude Lost 4.37M barrels over outage span

Zero-Stock Critical Day Day 21 Stock-out without supply rerouting

Wholesale Price Shock +18.4% Est. rack premium per gal / L

Regional Fuel Inventory Trajectory & Deficit Curve (30-Day Outlook)

Baseline Stock Outage Depletion With Mitigation & Rail

Product Barrel Cut Deficits (Daily Shortfall vs Regional Demand)

Supply Chain Substitution & Freight Premium Matrix

Logistics Transport Mode	Maximum Throughput (bpd)	Transit Latency	Freight Premium ($/bbl)	Deficit Coverage %	Operational Viability

Model calibrated. Live simulation synchronized.

Analytical Framework: Refining Disruption & Crack Spread Mechanics

Atmospheric Distillation (CDU) Bottlenecks

The crude distillation unit (CDU) fractionates incoming raw petroleum into boiling cuts. Kinetic drone or missile attacks targeting the primary distillation tower or fractionator furnaces disable the core intake gate, idling downstream secondary units (hydrocrackers, catalytic reformers, and alkylation units) regardless of secondary unit integrity.

Product Cut Economics & Yields

Refineries operate on fixed yield slates based on crude assay (e.g. Urals 31.8° API / 1.7% sulfur vs Light Louisiana Sweet 37° API). Disruption disproportionately tightens Euro-5 diesel and 95-RON gasoline in urban centers where local storage tank farms maintain between 12 to 20 days of operational buffer.

Intermodal Substitution Friction

Pipelines transport fuel at roughly $1.20–$2.80/bbl. Diverting thousands of carloads to rail tank cars (RTC) incurs a $6.50–$14.20/bbl premium plus congested junction bottlenecks, rapidly inflating local wholesale rack quotes and creating acute regional supply deficits.