Candidate A Projected R2
51.8%
61,420,000 votes
Candidate B Projected R2
48.2%
57,110,000 votes
Projected Winner & Margin
+3.6%
Bolsonaro (+4,310,000 votes)
Kalshi / Market Implied Lead
62% Prob
Based on swing absorption threshold
First-Round to Second-Round Vote Redistribution Flow Visual Transfer Matrix
Runoff Valid Vote Majority Target (50.0% + 1 vote) Candidate A clears by 1.8%
51.8%
48.2%
0% 50.0% Majority Line 100%
Detailed Coalition & Transfer Breakdown
Candidate / Bloc Round 1 Share Transferred to A Transferred to B Abstain / Blank Round 2 Contribution

Two-Round System (Ballotage) Mechanics

In presidential systems like Brazil, France, and Colombia, a candidate must win an absolute majority (50% + 1 of valid votes) in the first round to avoid a runoff. If the leader obtains 47% (as observed in the BNO report for Flávio Bolsonaro), all contenders except the top two are eliminated. The second round becomes an absorption battle for the remaining 10% of third-party and minor candidate votes.

Threshold & Elasticity Analysis

If Candidate A enters with 47% and Candidate B with 43%, Candidate A requires only 30.1% of the third-party pool to maintain a winning 50%+ share, while Candidate B must capture over 69.9% of those eliminated votes to overtake. Prediction markets like Kalshi price these asymmetric threshold mathematics into round-two contracts.

Turnout Differential & Blank Ballots

Runoffs frequently experience differential abstention: disappointed supporters of eliminated moderate or radical third-party candidates often cast blank/null votes or stay home. This simulator allows adjustments for differential abstention rates to reflect real-world ballot dynamics.

Export & Decision Verification

Export the complete scenario configuration as a structured JSON object or tabular report for geopolitical briefings, investment risk assessment, or electoral research workflows.

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